The OMDS/VGSE Vienna Joint Economics seminar is held weekly on Thursdays during the term.
VJE-Seminars scheduled in June:
- Speaker: Alon Eizenberg (U Hebrew)
- Title: An Empirical Analysis of Merger Efficiencies
- Time: Thursday, June 6, 1:15 – 2:45 pm
- Location: Lecture Hall 12, OMP-1
- Abstract: We develop an econometric method to study merger efficiencies. Classification techniques are employed first to determine the sign of the merger’s effect on output levels in specific markets affected by the merger. Building on these classifications, and on familiar oligopoly theory results, we then compute bounds on marginal cost savings. Applying this framework to the 2013 merger of US Airways and American Airlines we find that the merger led to output expansions in more than half of the markets where the sign of the output effect could be determined, and in at least 44% of the total number of markets that were directly affected by the merger and where the market structure was otherwise stable. Pro-competitive effects were more prevalent in larger markets and, to some extent, in markets that serve the merging airlines hubs. Averaging across the markets experiencing output expansions, the lower bound on the marginal cost reduction was slightly above 2 USD, capturing 0.8% of the market price. The analysis therefore provides insights regarding the nature and magnitude of merger efficiencies.
- Speaker: Alexander Ludwig (U Frankfurt)
- Title: Shaping Inequality and Intergenerational Persistence of Poverty: Free College or Better Schools (with Dirk Krueger and Irina Popova)
- Time: Thursday, June 13, 1:15 – 2:45 pm
- Location: Lecture Hall 12, OMP-1
- Abstract: We evaluate the aggregate, distributional and welfare consequences of alternative government education policies to encourage college completion, such as making college free and improving funding for public schooling. To do so, we construct a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with intergenerational linkages, a higher education choice as well as a multi-stage human capital production process during childhood and adolescence with parental and government schooling investments. The model features rich cross-sectional heterogeneity, distinguishes between single and married parents, and is disciplined by US household survey data on income, wealth, education and time use. Studying the transitions induced by unexpected policy reforms we show that the “free college” and the “better schools” reform generate significant welfare gains, which take time to materialize and are lower in general than in partial equilibrium. It is optimal to combine both reforms: tuition subsidies make college affordable even for children from poorer parental backgrounds and better schools increase human capital there by reducing dropout risk.
- Speaker: Georg Weizsäcker (Humboldt Universität zu Berlin)
- Title: Challenging the Pareto Principle in Risky Social Situations
- Time: Thursday, June 20, 1:15 – 2:45 pm
- Location: Lecture Hall 12, OMP-1
- Abstract: The Pareto Principle – favoring outcome distributions that are preferred by all members of society – is widely accepted as having strong normative effect. However, the norm may be challenged if members of society state their preferences before the resolution of uncertainty, when ex ante payment distributions are still relatively equal, compared to more unequal distributions that will result ex post. In such cases, an external observer may feel compelled to intervene and preclude the mutually preferred ex ante choice. We conduct experiments to test whether the general public adheres to Pareto in these situations, finding that it violates the Pareto Principle at an average frequency of about 60%. Variations in treatments show that concerns about inequality are indeed a strong driver of Pareto violations.
- Speaker: Severine Toussaert (U Oxford - St. John’s College)
- Title: Predicting Social Science Results (with Daniel Evans and Taisuke Imai)
- Time: Thursday, June 27, 1:15 – 2:45 pm
- Location: Lecture Hall 12, OMP-1
- Abstract: Researchers rely on their beliefs about future outcomes when making important decisions, such as whether to pursue a risky project or to accept a paper for publication. In recognition of the scientific value of these beliefs, increasingly many researchers are collecting predictions of research results, although the practice is not yet systematic. Before it becomes so, it could be beneficial to obtain a better understanding of the returns to collecting predictions and the best practices to follow when doing so. We contribute to this by conducting a narrative review and a quantitative meta-analysis of the literature of participating papers in the social sciences (N=104). This paper presents preliminary findings from our systematic valuation and conceptual discussions that address four key themes: (i) why predictions are being collected, (ii) who is collecting and providing them, (iii) how this is being done, and (iv) whether/when predictions tend to be informative. We leverage a pooled forecast dataset to tackle the final question. Our discussion concludes with evidence-based suggestions on best practices and possible next steps for the literature.
